自然と人為的な力による20世紀における気温の外部制御

P A Stott¹, S F Tett, G S Jones

¹Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, UK. pastott@meto.gov.uk

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|January 11, 2000

まとめ

自然と人間の活動の両方が,20世紀の気温変化に大きく影響した. 気候モデルは,外部の要因が地球と陸地の気温に強く影響し,温暖化が継続すると予測されていることを示しています.

科学分野:

気候科学気候科学
大気科学大気科学
海洋学海洋学海洋学

背景:

20世紀における気温の変化は,様々な要因の影響を受けています.
自然と人為的な強制力の相対的な貢献を理解することは,気候モデリングに不可欠です.

研究の目的:

観測データを,海洋と大気を組み合わせた一般循環モデルからのシミュレーションと比較する.
20世紀の気温変動に対する自然および人為的要因の貢献を決定する.

主な方法:

結合された海洋-大気一般循環モデルを用いて.
モデルのシミュレーションを,観測された地球平均および大規模な陸地温度データと比較する.
マルチデケダルおよびデケダルスケールの気温変動を分析する.

主要な成果:

このモデルは,地球全体の平均気温と土地の気温変動をシミュレートすることに成功した.
自然要因と人為要因の両方が,20世紀の温度変化に大きく貢献しました.
外部強制は,多十年間の地球平均気温変動の80%以上,そして10年から50年の陸地温度変動の60%以上を説明します.

結論:

大規模な気候変動への対応は,外部の要因に強く影響されています.
人為的な地球温暖化は,標準的な排出シナリオでは継続すると予測されています.
この発見は,現代の気候変動における人間の活動の重要な役割を強調しています.

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