大規模な気候の変動が野生および家畜の草食動物に及ぼす非線形的な影響
A Mysterud1, N C Stenseth, N G Yoccoz
1Department of Biology, Division of Zoology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1050 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
Nature
|April 27, 2001
まとめ
北大西洋振動 (NAO) は,ノルウェーの野生の赤鹿と家畜の羊の体重に非線形的に影響を及ぼします. 何十年にもわたって観察されたこの逆効果は,気候の変動が夏の採食条件に影響することを示唆しています.
科学分野:
- エコロジー エコロジー エコロジー
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 動物学 動物学
背景:
- 北大西洋振動 (NAO) のような大規模な気候変動は,生態学的プロセスに影響を与えます.
- 以前の研究では,主に気候が野生生物に及ぼす影響が線形であると仮定していた.
- 限られた研究で非線形的な気候効果が調査され,単調でない (逆転) 関係を証明したものはありませんでした.
研究 の 目的:
- 北大西洋振動 (NAO) と動物の体重との関係を調査する.
- NAOが体重に及ぼす影響が非線形で単調でないかどうかを判断する.
- 気候の変動と動物の身体状態を結びつける根本的なメカニズムを探求する.
主な方法:
- 数十年にわたる23838頭の野生の紅鹿と139485頭の家畜の羊の体重データを分析した.
- 次の秋のNAO指数と動物の体重の関係に関する統計的調査.
- NAOと地元の気候変数 (気温,降水,雪の深さ) の相関分析.
主要な成果:
- 赤い鹿と羊の両方の秋の体重にNAOの強い非線形および非単調な効果が特定されました.
- 比較可能な非線形関係は,NAOと局所的な気候変数との間に発見されました.
- この結果は,安定した冬のエネルギー供給を持つ羊にも当てはまり,間接的な影響を示唆しています.
結論:
- NAOは,赤鹿と羊の体重に大きな非単調な影響を及ぼします.
- 気候の変動は,NAOによって代理され,夏の飼料の条件に影響を与え,動物の身体状態に影響を与えます.
- 気候変動に対する生態学的反応は複雑で非線形であり,高度な分析的アプローチを必要とします.
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