プレイストセンの終わりのメガファウナの大量絶滅の多種の過剰殺戮シミュレーション
1National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA. alroy@nceas.ucsb.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|June 9, 2001
まとめ
コンピューター・シミュレーションにより,北米の大獣類の絶滅と生存が正確に予測され,気候変動ではなく,人間の狩猟がこれらのプレイストセンの終わりの出来事を引き起こしたことを示唆しています.
科学分野:
- パレオントロジー・パレオントロジー
- 考古学考古学とは
- エコロジカル・モデリング
背景:
- 北米におけるプレイストセンの末期は,大規模なメガファウナの絶滅を目撃した.
- これらの絶滅の正確な原動力は,気候変動であろうと,人間の活動であろうと,依然として議論されている.
研究 の 目的:
- 人間と大型草食動物の人口動態の機械的コンピューターシミュレーションを開発し,テストする.
- プレイストセンの終わりのメガファウナの絶滅における人間の狩猟の役割を評価する.
主な方法:
- 北米の人類と大型草食動物集団のダイナミクスを組み込むコンピュータシミュレーションモデルが作成されました.
- 人口増加,狩猟戦略,獲物の種に関するパラメータは,公表されたデータに基づいています.
- このモデルは41種の獲物の絶滅や生存を予測した.
主要な成果:
- シミュレーションは41種のうち32種の獲物の絶滅または生存を正しく予測しました.
- モデルの予測は,絶滅率,人間の人口密度,ゲーム消費に関する観測データと密接に一致しました.
- 無制限のパラメータが変化した場合でも,結果は堅調でした.
結論:
- 人間の狩猟は,特定の人口と狩猟の努力のパラメータの下で,プレイストセンの終わりのメガファウナ絶滅を説明することができます.
- このモデルは,気候変動や二次的な生態学的効果を必要とせずに,絶滅のメカニズム的な説明を提供します.
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