関連する実験動画
Updated: Nov 27, 2025
06:10
Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
1.3K
気候変動. 気候変動. 不確実性と気候変動の評価
J Reilly1, P H Stone, C E Forest
1Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA. jreilly@mit.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 21, 2001
まとめ
気候変動の不確実性に関する明確なコミュニケーションは,政策にとって不可欠です. 気候変動に関する政府間パネル (IPCC) は,よりよい気候変動政策立案のために,不確実性評価方法を改善する必要がある.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 環境政策 環境政策
- リスク評価 リスク評価
背景:
- 気候変動に関する効果的な公共政策は,明確で定量的な不確実性に関する議論に依存しています.
- 気候変動に関する政府間パネル (IPCC) は,最近,気候に関する調査結果と予測の不確実性を評価した.
研究 の 目的:
- IPCCの不確実性評価プロセスの改善を提案する.
- 気候変動報告書における不確実性の定量化の明確性と一貫性を高める.
主な方法:
- IPCCの現在の不確実性評価手順の分析.
- 不確実性を定量化するためのより一貫した,集中的なアプローチのための勧告.
- 専門的な判断が採用された場合,手続きの文書化と相談を受けた専門家のリストを強調する.
主要な成果:
- 現在のIPCCの不確実性評価は,より大きな一貫性によって改善することができます.
- 定量化が政策に係る重要な結果に焦点を当てることで,明確性が向上します.
- 専門家の判断に関する完全な文書化と透明性は極めて重要です.
結論:
- 不確実性の定量化に標準化され,文書化されたアプローチを実装することで,IPCCの報告書が強化されます.
- 不確実性に関するコミュニケーションの改善は,情報に基づいた気候変動政策立案に不可欠です.
関連する概念動画
01:16What is Climate?
20.0K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
20.0K
00:59Uncertainty: Overview
1.3K
In analytical chemistry, we often perform repetitive measurements to detect and minimize inaccuracies caused by both determinate and indeterminate errors. Despite the cares we take, the presence of random errors means that repeated measurements almost never have exactly the same magnitude. The collective difference between these measurements - observed values - and the estimated or expected value is called uncertainty. Uncertainty is conventionally written after the estimated or expected value.
1.3K
01:50Global Climate Change
28.1K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
28.1K
00:54Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals
8.8K
The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor...
8.8K
03:37Uncertainty in Measurement: Accuracy and Precision
98.4K
Scientists typically make repeated measurements of a quantity to ensure the quality of their findings and to evaluate both the precision and the accuracy of their results. Measurements are said to be precise if they yield very similar results when repeated in the same manner. A measurement is considered accurate if it yields a result that is very close to the true or the accepted value. Precise values agree with each other; accurate values agree with a true value.
98.4K
00:59Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error
1.5K
An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
1.5K