平均地球温暖化に関する高い予測の解釈
1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA. wigley@ucar.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 21, 2001
まとめ
最新の気候変動予測によると,緩和政策がなければ2100年までに地球温暖化が1.7~4.9°Cに達する可能性が高い. 新しい分析によると,極端な高温または低温のシナリオは不可能です.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 環境科学 環境科学
- 大気科学 大気科学
背景:
- 気候変動に関する政府間パネル (IPCC) は,地球温暖化予測を更新した第3次評価報告書 (TAR) を発表した.
- TARの予測される温暖化範囲 (1.45.8°C) は,IPCCの以前の評価よりも高い.
研究 の 目的:
- 新しいIPCC TAR温暖化範囲を確率的に解釈するために.
- 気候予測の不確実性を定量化するために,排出量,気候感受性,炭素循環,海洋混合,エアロゾール強制を含む.
主な方法:
- IPCC TAR温暖化予測の確率分析. IPCC TAR温暖化予測の確率分析. IPCC TAR温暖化予測の概率分析. IPCC TAR温暖化予測の概率分析. IPCC TAR温暖化予測の概率分析. IPCC TAR温暖化予測の概率分析. IPCC TAR温暖化予測の概率分析. IPCC TAR温暖化予測の概率分析.
- 気候システムの重要な不確実性の説明.
主要な成果:
- TARの範囲の極端な高と低い端の温暖化値の確率は非常に低い.
- 気候緩和政策なしでは1990年から2100年にかけての地球温暖化平均の90%の確率区間は1.7°Cから4.9°Cです.
結論:
- 将来の地球温暖化の最も可能性が高い範囲は,完全なTAR範囲が示唆するよりも狭いです.
- 予測される温暖化の上限を回避するために,緊急の気候変動緩和政策は極めて重要です.
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