大西洋のハリケーン活動の最近の増加:原因と影響
S B Goldenberg1, C W Landsea, A M Mestas-Nunez
1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149, USA. Stanley.Goldenberg@noaa.gov
まとめ
北大西洋のハリケーン活動は,1995年から2000年の間に大幅に増加し,より大きなハリケーンとカリブ海の影響が増加しました. 海温の上昇によって引き起こされるこの傾向は,今後数十年間も続くと予想され,最新の備え戦略が必要となる.
科学分野:
- 気候学 気候学
- 気象学 気象学 気象学
- 海洋学 海洋学とは
背景:
- 1971年から1994年までの期間は,北大西洋のハリケーン活動が低かった.
- 近年 (1995-2000年) は,熱帯サイクロンの発生が著しく増加しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 1995年以来観測された北大西洋のハリケーン活動の急増を分析する.
- この増加したハリケーンシーズンの強さの背後にある気候のドライバーを特定するために.
- この高活動期間の将来の期間を予測する.
主な方法:
- 1971-2000年のハリケーン活動データの比較分析.
- ハリケーン発生頻度と海面温度と垂直風切断の相関.
- マルチデケダル気候トレンド評価.
主要な成果:
- 北大西洋の全体的なハリケーン活動の倍増.
- 大規模なハリケーン (カテゴリー3以上) が2.5倍に増加した.
- カリブ海地域に影響を与えるハリケーンが5倍に増加した.
- 活動の増加は,海面温度上昇と垂直風切断の減少に起因する.
結論:
- 北大西洋のハリケーン活動の現在の高いレベルは,何十年にもわたる気候変動に関連しています.
- この増加した活動は,さらに10年から40年間続くと予測されています.
- 気候変動への適応と緩和戦略の再評価は極めて重要です.
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