気候と煙:核冬の評価

R P Turco¹, O B Toon, T P Ackerman

¹University of California, Los Angeles 90024, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|January 12, 1990

まとめ

核の冬のシミュレーションでは,地球が著しく冷却され,煙突の注入による深刻な環境影響が示されています. 気候モデルは,劇的な気温低下,大気循環の変化,オゾン層の減少を予測しています.

科学分野:

大気科学大気科学
気候科学気候科学
環境科学環境科学

背景:

核の冬は,大規模な核紛争の潜在的な結果です.
以前の研究では,基本的な物理が確立されましたが,最近の進歩は,精巧な定量化を提供します.

研究の目的:

核冬に関する最新の理解をレビューする.
煙突の注入,分散,および気候の影響の定量化における進展を詳細に説明する.
不確実性や研究優先事項について議論する.

主な方法:

実験室の研究,フィールド実験,数値モデリングのレビュー.
煙草の注入シナリオのための3次元気候シミュレーションの分析.
大気循環と環境の混乱の評価.

主要な成果:

シミュレーションでは,北半球の真夏の陸地温度が10~20°C下がり,局所的な冷却が35°Cまで下がると予測されています.
煙草の注射は上層大気を安定させ,煙草の寿命と半球間輸送を延長します.
新しい環境問題を特定しました. 雨季の降雨が妨げられ,重度の平流層のオゾン層の減少です.

結論:

核冬の基本的な物理学は,現在の研究によって再確認されています.
核交換によって重大な気候と環境への影響が予測されている.
原子力冬季モデリングの残りの不確実性に対処するためにさらなる研究が必要である.

キーワード:

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