気候変動. 気候変動. 海面上昇のスピードはどれくらいですか?
1Antarctic CRC and CSIRO Marine Research, Tasmania 7000, Australia. john.church@marine.csiro.au
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|October 27, 2001
まとめ
地球温暖化は海面上昇を引き起こしていますが,正確な測定は困難です. 最近の観測データの再評価は,気候モデルとよりよく一致していますが,地域予測は不確実です.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学とは
- 地質物理学 地質物理学とは地質物理学です.
背景:
- 地球温暖化が明らかに海面上昇を促している.
- 海面上昇率の正確な評価は,大きな課題を提示しています.
- 既存の観測データと気候モデルには不一致があることが示されています.
研究 の 目的:
- 観測海面データを再評価する.
- 更新された観測データを気候モデルの推定値と比較する.
- 地域の海面の変化予測に対する信頼性を評価する.
主な方法:
- 歴史的および現代的な海面観測データの再評価.
- 再評価された観測データの比較と,さまざまな気候モデルからの出力.
- 地域の海平面予測におけるモデル合意と不一致の分析.
主要な成果:
- 再評価された観測データは,以前よりモデル推定値とより密接な一致を示しています.
- 合意が改善されたにもかかわらず,観測データは範囲とカバー面において依然として限られている.
- 気候モデルは,地域の海面上昇予測において,大きな矛盾を示している.
結論:
- 現在の観測データと気候モデルでは,地域の海面の変化を確実に予測することはできません.
- 正確な地域予測のために,データ収集とモデリングの両方においてさらなる改善が必要である.
- 海面上昇の地域的な変動を理解することは,適応戦略にとって極めて重要です.
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