変化する気候で大洪水のリスクが高まっている
P C D Milly1, R T Wetherald, K A Dunne
1US Geological Survey, GFDL/NOAA, P.O. Box 308, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA. cmilly@usgs.gov
Nature
|February 2, 2002
まとめ
人為的な気候変動により,世界的な大洪水の頻度が増加しています. この傾向は統計的に有意であり,今後も続くと予測されており,洪水リスク管理に影響を及ぼしている.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 水文学 水文学とは
- 環境科学 環境科学
背景:
- 大気組成の変化によって引き起こされる人類による気候変動は,地球規模の水循環を活発化し,洪水のリスクを増大させる.
- 人為的な洪水の変化を検出することは,自然の変動性と複雑な流れ依存性のために困難です.
研究 の 目的:
- 大洪水のリスクの変化を調査する (200,000km以上の盆地で100年度の排水レベルを超える) (2).
- 温室効果ガスや硫酸エアロゾールを含む人為的な気候変動が洪水リスクに及ぼす影響を分析する.
主な方法:
- ストリームフローの測定と数値気候シミュレーションを使用しました.
- 極端な洪水事件を評価するために,大きな河川流域に焦点を当てました.
主要な成果:
- 20世紀には大洪水の頻度が大幅に増加した.
- 最近,大洪水リスクにおける統計的に有意なポジティブな傾向が明らかになりました.
結論:
- 観測された洪水リスクの傾向は,気候モデルの予測と一致しています.
- この研究は,気候変動による大洪水リスクの継続的な増加を示しています.
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