観測と気候モデルの集合から放射力強制と将来の気候変動の制約
Reto Knutti1, Thomas F Stocker, Fortunat Joos
1Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland.
Nature
|April 19, 2002
まとめ
この研究では,モンテカルロアプローチを用いて,地球温暖化予測の不確実性を定量化しています. 結果は,世界の気温がIPCCの予測を上回る40%の確率を示し,洗練された気候モデルの必要性を強調しています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 環境モデリング
- 大気物理学 大気物理学
背景:
- 地球温暖化の予測は,量化されていない気候変数のために,専門家の判断に大きく依存しています.
- 温室効果ガスとエアロゾールの放射性フォッシング効果に対する気候感受性において,重要な不確実性が存在します.
- これらの不確実性は,地球温暖化シミュレーションの大きな変動につながります.
研究 の 目的:
- 低複雑性モデルを使用して,気候予測のための確率的アプローチを開発する.
- 入力パラメータと気候モデル自体の不確実性を組み込む.
- 歴史的な海洋および大気温暖化の観測を用いてモデル応答を制約する.
主な方法:
- モンテカルロシミュレーション技術を使用した.
- 複雑さが軽減された気候モデルを使用しました.
- 過去の気候観測による制限されたモデルパラメータ.
主要な成果:
- 現在の総放射力 (1.42.4 W m−2) の確率密度関数を生成した.
- グローバル平均間接エアロゾール効果を0〜-1.2Wm-2.2に絞る
- アセンブルシミュレーションでは,IPCCが予測した地球温暖化範囲を上回る40%の確率を示しています.
結論:
- 確率的な気候予測は,地球温暖化の評価における不確実性を効果的に減らすことができます.
- この研究は,放射線強制とエアロゾール効果の範囲をより制限しています.
- 将来の温暖化は,現在確立された予測を上回る可能性が高い.
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