気候の温暖化と,陸地と海の生物群に対する疾病リスク
C Drew Harvell1, Charles E Mitchell, Jessica R Ward
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA. cdh5@cornell.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|June 22, 2002
まとめ
気候変動は野生動物の感染症に影響を及ぼし,潜在的に人口減少を引き起こす可能性があります. これらの気候疾患のダイナミクスを理解することは,将来の流行を予測し,生物多様性を保全するために不可欠です.
科学分野:
- エコロジー エコロジー エコロジー
- 病理学 パトロジー
- 気候科学 気候科学
背景:
- 感染症は生物多様性にとって重大な脅威となり,人口減少や絶滅につながる.
- 温度,降雨量,湿度などの環境要因は,病原体の動態と宿主の感受性に影響します.
- 気候変動,特に温暖化は,陸上と海洋の両方の生態系における感染症の頻度と重症度を変化させると予想されています.
研究 の 目的:
- 気候変数と野生の集団における感染症の複雑な相互作用を調査する.
- 気候変動が生物多様性に対する病気の影響を悪化させるか軽減させるかを評価する.
- 気候変動の要因を解明することによって,病気の流行の予測モデルを改善する.
主な方法:
- 気候-宿主-病原体相互作用に関する既存の文献のレビュー.
- 特定の病原体 (例えば,サンゴ病,リフトバレー熱) に対する気候の影響を示すケーススタディの分析.
- 気候要因の独立効果と相互作用効果を区別する必要性を強調する.
主要な成果:
- 気候変動は一般的に病原体の生存,伝播,宿主の感受性を高め,より深刻な病気の発生につながります.
- 病原体のサブセットは温暖化とともに減少し,宿主を病気の圧力から解放する可能性があります.
- エルニーニョ-南方振動現象などの気候パターンの変化は,様々な病原体に明らかな影響を及ぼしています.
結論:
- 気候変動は,感染症のダイナミクスの変化を通して,生物多様性に対する二重の脅威をもたらします.
- 病気の発生を予測するには,複数の気候要因がどのように相互作用するかを微妙に理解する必要があります.
- 野生の集団における疫病の正確な予測のために,気候の要因を分離するためにさらなる研究が必要である.
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