デング熱の世界的な分布に対する人口と気候変動の潜在的な影響: 経験的モデル
Simon Hales1, Neil de Wet, John Maindonald
1Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine and Health Sciences, PO box 7343, Mein Street, Wellington, New Zealand. shales@wnmeds.ac.nz
Lancet (London, England)
|September 24, 2002
まとめ
気候変動により,デング熱の伝播に適した地域が拡大する. 2085年までに,50億~60億人が危険にさらされ,世界のデング熱の負担が大幅に増加する可能性があります.
科学分野:
- 環境科学 環境科学
- 公衆衛生は公衆衛生である.
- エピデミオロジー エピデミオロジー
背景:
- 媒介性疾患に対する気候変動の影響に関する現在のモデルは,人口増加や気候変数の相互作用などの社会要因をしばしば無視しています.
- 世界的な気候変動が人間の健康に及ぼす影響,特にベクトル媒介の病気の伝播を調査することは極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- グローバルな気候変動が人間の健康に及ぼす潜在的な影響をモデル化するために.
- デング熱をケーススタディとして用いて,ベクトル媒介性疾患の伝播に対する影響を具体的に評価する.
主な方法:
- 世界的なデング熱の分布は,蒸気圧 (湿度) を用いてモデル化されました.
- 将来の気候変動と人口予測を統合して,デング熱の伝播限界とリスク集団の変化を評価した.
主要な成果:
- デング熱の伝播境界は,長期平均蒸気圧を用いて正確にモデル化されました (89%).
- 1990年には,15億人 (30%) がデング熱のリスク>50%に直面していた.
- 2085年までに,予測では50~60%の50~60億人がリスクにさらされ,気候変動なしの35億人 (35%) から大幅に増加すると予測されています.
結論:
- 気候変動により,デング熱の伝播に適した地域が拡大すると予測されています.
- 他の要因が変わらなければ,世界の人口の大部分はデング熱のリスクが高まるでしょう.
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