イギリスにおけるクレウツフェルト・ヤコブ病の変種による死亡者数
N J Andrews1, C P Farrington, H J T Ward
1Public Health Laboratory Service, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|March 7, 2003
まとめ
イギリスにおける変異型クレッツフェルト・ヤコブ病 (vCJD) 死亡率は,減速傾向を示し,2000年にピークに達した. 最近のデータは励ましのものであるが,将来のvCJD死亡の増加は可能性が残っている.
科学分野:
- エピデミオロジー エピデミオロジー
- 神経学 神経学とは
- 公衆衛生は公衆衛生である.
背景:
- 変異型クレッツフェルト・ヤコブ病 (vCJD) は致命的な神経変性疾患である.
- vCJDの死亡率の動向を監視することは,公衆衛生の監視にとって極めて重要です.
- 以前の傾向は,vCJD症例の潜在的な増加を示していた.
研究 の 目的:
- 1995年以降の英国におけるvCJDの死亡率データを分析する.
- vCJD死亡率の根本的な傾向を推定する.
- vCJD死亡の将来の軌道を評価する.
主な方法:
- イギリスのvCJD死亡データ分析.
- 死亡傾向を特定するための統計モデリング.
- 死亡率の動向における二次構成要素の推定.
主要な成果:
- vCJDによる英国での死亡は,2000年には28人,2001年には20人,2002年には17人でした.
- 死亡率の傾向は,重要な二次構成要素 (p=0.005) を示した.
- 分析によると,vCJDの死亡率の増加傾向は減速しており,2000年にピークに達している.
結論:
- vCJDの死亡率の減速傾向は,公衆衛生の振興的な指標である.
- 観察された傾向は,vCJD死亡の増加が指数関数的ではないことを示唆しています.
- 減速傾向にもかかわらず,将来のvCJD死亡率の増加は排除できない.
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