急激な気候変動による

R B Alley¹, J Marotzke, W D Nordhaus

¹Department of Geosciences and EMS Environment Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|March 29, 2003

まとめ

人間の活動により,急激な気候変動のリスクが増加し,深刻な経済的,生態学的被害を引き起こす可能性があります. このリスクの管理には,さらなる研究と適応戦略が不可欠です.

科学分野:

地球システム科学地球システム科学
気候科学気候科学
環境科学環境科学

背景:

地球の歴史は,大きな,急激な気候変化が,値を越えて強制的に発生することを繰り返し示しています.
人間の活動が気候システムにますます影響を及ぼし,このようなイベントの確率を潜在的に高めています.

研究の目的:

人為活動が,急激な気候変動の可能性を増やす可能性を探求すること.
将来の急激な気候現象の潜在的な経済的,生態学的影響を評価する.
気候変動に関する研究と適応に関する政策決定に情報を提供するため.

主な方法:

歴史的な気候データと地球システムの動態の分析.
値行動を理解するために,気候モデリングのレビュー.
過去の出来事と現在の動向に基づいて,潜在的な影響の評価.

主要な成果:

過去の急激な気候変動は,地球システムの強制への感受性を示しています.
人間の気候強制は,大規模で突然の気候現象を誘発するリスクを高める可能性があります.
気候の値に近い予測は,予測不能性のために本質的に不確実性を伴う.

結論:

政策立案者は,急激な気候変動に関する研究を優先すべきです.
気候モニタリングシステムの強化は,早期発見に不可欠です.
生態系と経済の回復力を向上させるための戦略を開発することは極めて重要です.

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