最近のトロポパウスの高さの変化に人類的および自然的な強制の貢献
B D Santer1, M F Wehner, T M L Wigley
1Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. santer1@llnl.gov
まとめ
地球の大気層を分離する熱帯圏は,1979年以来,著しく上昇しています. 気候モデルは,人間の活動,主にオゾン層の変化と温室効果ガスが,この観測された増加の原因であることを示しています.
科学分野:
- 大気科学 大気科学
- 気候変動研究 気候変動研究
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
背景:
- 熱帯圏と平流圏の境界である熱帯圏は,1979年以来,著しい高さの上昇を示しています.
- 気候モデルは,熱帯圏高さの類似の増加をシミュレートし,外部の強制力とのつながりを示唆しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 観測された熱断期の高さの上昇の背後にある要因を調査する.
- トロポパウスの高さの変化を特定の人為的および自然要因に起因させる.
- 観測データによる気候モデルシミュレーションの検証.
主な方法:
- 1979年以降の観測データ (再分析データセット) の分析.
- 気候モデル実験を用いて大気の変化をシミュレートする.
- 観測データにおけるモデルによって予測された"指紋"の統計的検出.
主要な成果:
- トロポパウスの高さは,1979年以来数百メートル増加しています.
- 気候モデルによると,オゾン層の減少と温室効果ガスの良好な混合が,シミュレートされた上昇の約80%を占めている.
- ストラトスフィアの冷却 (オゾンによる) とトロポスフィアの温暖化 (温室効果ガスによる) が主なメカニズムである.
- モデルによって予測される変化は,観測データにおいて統計的に検出可能である.
結論:
- トロポパウズの高さの観測された増加は,人為的および自然的な外部強制力の組み合わせに起因する.
- 人為的な要因,特にオゾン層の変化と温室効果ガスの排出は,熱帯圏の高さの上昇の主な要因です.
- この研究は,大気構造に対する人間の影響に対する強力な証拠を提供します.
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