エルニーニョと健康
R Sari Kovats1, Menno J Bouma, Shakoor Hajat
1Department of Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. sari.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk
Lancet (London, England)
|November 7, 2003
まとめ
エルニーニョの南方振動 (ENSO) 気候パターンは,世界の天候に影響を与え,災害の影響とコレラやマラリアなどの病気のリスクを増大させます. ENSOの理解は,公衆衛生の準備と資源の配分を助けます.
科学分野:
- 気候学 気候学
- エピデミオロジー エピデミオロジー
- 公衆衛生は公衆衛生である.
背景:
- エルニーニョの南方振動 (ENSO) は,太平洋で発生する繰り返しの気候現象です.
- エルニーニョやラニーニャを含むENSO現象は,世界の気象パターンに大きく影響し,しばしば干ばつや洪水などの極端な出来事につながります.
- これらの気候の変化は,特に感染症の発生に関して,公衆衛生に十分に文書化された影響を及ぼしています.
研究 の 目的:
- ENSOと公衆衛生の成果の間の既定および潜在的なリンクをレビューする.
- ENSOが疾病リスク管理と災害対策に及ぼす影響を強調する.
- 時間のリスク管理のための気候予測の活用に関する健康計画者への情報提供.
主な方法:
- ENSOと疾患発生率との関連を調査するタイムシリーズ分析の体系的レビュー.
- ENSOの様々な感染症への影響に関する証拠の強さの評価.
- 公共衛生の計画と資源配分に及ぼす影響の分析.
主要な成果:
- ENSOは,世界中で自然災害による人間の影響の増加と強く関連しています.
- ENSOとバングラデシュのコレラ,南アジアと南米のマラリアのリスクの増加との間には,確立された関連があります.
- ENSOが他の蚊媒介およびネズミ媒介疾患に及ぼす影響に関する証拠は,マラリアやコレラと比較して,より堅固ではありません.
結論:
- ENSOは,公衆衛生にとって重要な時間的なリスク要因であり,計画に統合する必要がある.
- ENSOの予測を含む季節的な気候予測は,積極的な疫病管理と災害への備えのための機会を提供します.
- 純粋に空間的な健康計画から時間的なリスク管理への移行は,効果的なリソースターゲティングに不可欠です.
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