気候変動がアフリカでマラリアの伝播に及ぼす潜在的な影響
Frank C Tanser1, Brian Sharp, David le Sueur
1Malaria Research Lead Programme, Medical Research Council, Overport, Durban, South Africa. tanserf@mrc.ac.za
Lancet (London, England)
|December 5, 2003
まとめ
気候変動により,アフリカにおけるマラリアの感染率が16%から28%増加する可能性があるが,その主な原因は,地理的な広がりではなく,より長い伝播期間によるものである. これは,ベクトル媒介性疾患に対する公衆衛生計画に影響を与えます.
科学分野:
- 環境科学 環境科学
- エピデミオロジー エピデミオロジー
- 気候モデリング
背景:
- 気候変動は,マラリアのようなベクトル媒介疾患の伝播力学に重大な脅威をもたらしています.
- 現在のマラリアへの曝露を理解することは,将来の影響を予測するために不可欠です.
研究 の 目的:
- アフリカにおける現在のプラズモディウム・ファルシパラム・マラリアの感染率を定量的に推定する.
- 予測される気候変動シナリオがマラリアの伝播パターンに与える潜在的な影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 3791の寄生虫調査を用いて,アフリカにおけるマラリア伝播の空間時間的に検証されたモデルを開発した.
- ハドリーセンターの世界気候モデル (HAD CM3) のシナリオを利用して,気候変動が伝播に及ぼす影響を予測した.
主要な成果:
- モデルは高特異性 (96%) と合理的な感度 (63%) を月間精度で示した.
- アフリカにおける年間マラリア被曝率は推定31億人/月.
- 2100年までにマラリアの分布が5~7%増加すると予測され,主に高度に広がり,緯度の拡大は最小限に留まる.
- 既存の伝染地帯に集中した,人-月の被曝量の16~28%の増加が予想されています.
結論:
- マラリアの伝播に対する気候変動の影響は,地理的拡大と同様に季節の延長によって引き起こされる.
- 開発されたモデルは,気候シナリオの評価とマラリア制御のための介入の計画のための検証されたベースラインを提供します.
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