ヨーロッパの夏の熱波における温度変動の増加の役割
Christoph Schär1, Pier Luigi Vidale, Daniel Lüthi
1Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland. schaer@env.ethz.ch
Nature
|January 13, 2004
まとめ
地球温暖化により熱波が増えているが,2003年のヨーロッパ熱波は極めて稀であった. より高い平均値ではなく,より高い温度変動が,極端な熱の発生を説明する可能性がある.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 気象学 気象学 気象学
- 環境科学 環境科学
背景:
- 過去150年間,地球と半球の気温は著しく上昇しています.
- この温暖化傾向は,熱波の頻度の増加と関連しています.
- 現在のモデルでは,熱波は温度分布の変化であり,変動の増大ではないと説明しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 2003年中欧の熱波を説明する既存のモデルの失敗を調査する.
- 極端な熱現象を説明するために,温度変動の増大を含む新しいフレームワークを提案し,テストする.
- 温室効果ガスの濃度が増加した欧州の将来の気候変動をシミュレートするために.
主な方法:
- インストゥルメンタルおよび再構築された温度データの分析.
- 極端な暑さイベントの確率を評価するための統計モデリング.
- 将来の温室効果ガスシナリオの下での地域気候モデリング.
主要な成果:
- 2003年の中欧の熱波は,以前のモデルでは,統計的に非常に可能性が低いものでした.
- シミュレーションは,将来の欧州の気候において,温度変動が最大100%増加する可能性を示しています.
- 温度変動の増大は,中央ヨーロッパと東ヨーロッパで最も顕著でした.
結論:
- 平均気温の単純な変化だけでは,2003年のヨーロッパ熱波のような極端な暑さ現象を説明するには不十分です.
- 温暖化とともに,温度変動の増加は,極端な熱を理解し予測するための重要な要因です.
- 将来の気候シナリオは,特に中央ヨーロッパと東ヨーロッパでは,気温の変動が著しく上昇することを示唆しています.
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