過去148年のエルニーニョの予測可能性
Dake Chen1, Mark A Cane, Alexey Kaplan
1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York 10964, USA. dchen@ldeo.columbia.edu
Nature
|April 16, 2004
まとめ
エルニーニョの気候現象の予測可能性は,これまで考えられていたよりも高い. 予後予測は,大気騒音ではなく内部動態を示し,エルニーニョを制御し,初期条件を正確な予測の鍵にしています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大気科学 大気科学
背景:
- エルニーニョの予測可能性の限界は議論されており,いくつかの研究は大気騒音と他の初期モデルエラーの増加を引用しています.
- ルーティンなエルニーニョの気候現象の予測は提供されていますが,その正確さは科学的な議論の対象となっています.
研究 の 目的:
- 予後予測を用いてエルニーニョの予測可能性を評価する.
- エルニーニョの進化の主要な原動力とその予測の正確性への影響について調査する.
主な方法:
- 遡及的な予測のために,カップリングされた海洋大気モデルを使用した.
- 1857年から2003年までの熱帯太平洋の年間間気象変動を分析した.
主要な成果:
- このモデルは,1857年から2003年の間,最大2年間のリードタイムで,すべての主要なエルニーニョ現象を成功裏に予測しました.
- エルニーニョの進化は,ランダムな大気圧力ではなく,主として自立した内部力学によって支配されています.
結論:
- エルニーニョの予測可能性は,予測不能な大気騒音ではなく,初期条件によって大きく影響を受けます.
- エルニーニョの現象は,これまで理解されていたよりも,過去"世紀以上に予測可能でした.
関連する概念動画
Hindsight Biases
Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?
Nuclear Stability
Protons and neutrons, collectively called nucleons, are packed together tightly in a nucleus. With a radius of about 10−15 meters, a nucleus is quite small compared to the radius of the entire atom, which is about 10−10 meters. Nuclei are extremely dense compared to bulk matter, averaging 1.8 × 1014 grams per cubic centimeter. If the earth’s density were equal to the average nuclear density, the earth’s radius would be only about 200 meters.
To hold positively charged protons together in the...
To hold positively charged protons together in the...
Sanger Sequencing
DNA sequencing is a fundamental technique that is routinely used in the biological sciences. This method can be applied to a range of questions at different scales - from the sequencing of a cloned DNA fragment or the study of a mutation in a gene up to whole-genome sequencing. However, despite the widespread use of sequencing today, it was not until 1977 that Fredrick Sanger and his collaborators developed the chain-termination method to decode DNA sequences. It relies on the separation of a...
Prediction Intervals
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
The...
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
The...
End Point Prediction: Gran Plot
A Gran plot is used to predict the equivalence volume or endpoint of a potentiometric or acid-base titration without reaching the endpoint. Typically, titration data is collected as a function of the titrant's volume up to a point less than the equivalence volume and then transformed into a linear format. The straight line is extended to the x-axis, indicating the necessary titrant volume to achieve the equivalence point.
For potentiometric titration, the Gran plot is created by plotting the...
For potentiometric titration, the Gran plot is created by plotting the...
Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predicted Value
In healthcare diagnostics, laboratory tests play a crucial role in identifying and diagnosing a wide range of medical conditions. However, interpreting test results is not always straightforward. An abnormal test result does not always confirm the presence of a disease, just as a normal result does not guarantee its absence. To assess the reliability of these diagnostic tools, healthcare practitioners rely on two key statistical indicators: sensitivity and specificity.
Sensitivity is the...
Sensitivity is the...

