"危険な"気候変動の概率的統合評価について
Michael D Mastrandrea1, Stephen H Schneider
1Interdisciplinary Graduate Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. mikemas@stanford.edu
まとめ
効果的な気候政策は,危険な気候変動のリスクを軽減することができます. 気候感受性,損害賠償,割引率を統合することによって,最適な政策は,深刻な影響の確率を45%からほぼゼロに減らす.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 環境経済学 環境経済学
- 統合評価モデリング
背景:
- 気候政策の決定は,大きな不確実性のもとに行われます.
- これらの決定は,気候システムに対する危険な人類による干渉の可能性に影響を与えます.
- このリスクを定量化することは,効果的な政策にとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- "気候システムに対する危険な人類による干渉"の指標を開発し,適用する.
- 気候政策の成果に対する重要なパラメータにおける不確実性の影響を評価する.
- 気候リスクの軽減における最適な気候政策の有効性を決定する.
主な方法:
- IPCCの気候影響評価に基づいた危険な気候干渉のメトリックをマッピングしました.
- パラメータ不確実性から派生した将来の気候変動の確率分布を利用した.
- 分析のために単純な統合評価モデルを使用した.
主要な成果:
- 中間の仮定では,最適の気候政策制御を計算しました.
- これらの政策は,危険な人類による干渉の可能性を大幅に軽減します.
- 確率は,最小限のコントロールで約45%から,最適なコントロールでほぼゼロまで減少した.
結論:
- 総合的な評価によって情報提供された最適な気候政策は,気候リスクを効果的に管理することができます.
- 気候変動に対する感受性,損害,割引率に関する不確実性に対処することは,政策の策定の鍵です.
- 気候変動の深刻な影響を防ぐために,積極的な政策介入が不可欠です.
関連する概念動画
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