病原体と捕食者の組み合わせが昆虫の発生に及ぼす影響
Greg Dwyer1, Jonathan Dushoff, Susan Harrell Yee
1Department of Ecology and Evolution, 1101 E 57th Street, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637-1573, USA. gdwyer@uchicago.edu
Nature
|July 16, 2004
まとめ
森林昆虫の発生は複雑である. 汎用的な肉食動物と専門的な病原体を組み合わせた新しいモデルは,以前の理論とは異なり,それらの不規則なタイミングを説明しています. この研究は,生態学的モデルにおける多種間の相互作用の必要性を強調しています.
科学分野:
- エコロジー エコロジー エコロジー
- 理論生物学理論生物学について
- 森林昆虫学 森林昆虫学
背景:
- 偶発的な森林昆虫の発生は,経済に大きな損害を及ぼします.
- 専門的な病原体/寄生虫,または一般的な捕食者にのみ焦点を当てた既存の理論は,アウトブレイクの変動性を説明できていません.
- 古典的なモデルは,観察されたアウトブレイクの間隔を正確に反映していません.
研究 の 目的:
- 森林昆虫の発生の動態を説明するより包括的なモデルを開発する.
- 疫病発生頻度に関する理論的予測と経験的データとの不一致を調和させる.
- 昆虫の集団動態における多種間の相互作用の役割を調査する.
主な方法:
- 新しい宿主-病原体-捕食者モデルの開発.
- 集団の変動をシミュレートするためにストキャスティシティの組み込み.
- モデルアウトプットの比較と現実世界のアウトブレイクデータ.
主要な成果:
- 統合モデルは,昆虫の発生に特徴的な長く不規則な間隔を成功裏に複製しています.
- 捕食者が制御するバランスと病原体が駆動するサイクル間の変動が,アウトブレイクパターンを説明します.
- このモデルは,捕食者-病原体相互作用の組み合わせが,現実的なアウトブレイクダイナミクスを生成する方法を示しています.
結論:
- 昆虫のアウトブレイクは,汎用的な捕食者と専門的な病原菌の両方を組み込むモデルによってよりよく説明されます.
- ストカスティシティは,人口動態とアウトブレイクの発生を調節する上で重要な役割を果たします.
- 将来の研究は,生態学的アウトブレイクの完全な理解のために,多種間の相互作用を考慮する必要があります.
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