騒音データから過去の気候を再構築する
Hans von Storch1, Eduardo Zorita, Julie M Jones
1Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht 21502, Germany. storch@gkss.de
まとめ
過去千年の北半球 (NH) の温度再構築は,百年の変動を過小評価する可能性があります. 気候モデルのシミュレーションは,過去の実際の気温変動が,以前に再構築されたものより少なくとも2倍大きいことを示唆しています.
科学分野:
- 古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは
- 気候モデリング
- 統計的分析 統計的分析 統計的分析 統計的分析
背景:
- 過去千年の北半球 (NH) の気温の経験的再構築は,小さな変動と最近の温暖化を示しています.
- マルチプロキシ記録は,過去の気候変動を再構築するために一般的に使用されます.
研究 の 目的:
- マルチデケダルおよび百年の時間スケールで経験的再構築方法のスキルをテストする.
- マルチプロキシ記録から得られた過去のNH温度変動の正確性を評価する.
主な方法:
- 過去1000年のカップリングされた大気と海洋のモデルシミュレーションが,気候の代替物として使用されています.
- シミュレーションされたグリッドポイントの温度データから生成された理想的なプロキシレコード,追加された統計ノイズ.
- 百年の温度変動を分析するために適用された回帰ベースの方法.
主要な成果:
- 適用された回帰ベースの方法によって,NH温度の一百年の変動性は過小評価されています.
- シミュレートされた気温変動は,経験的再構築が過去の大幅な気候変動を見逃す可能性があることを示唆しています.
結論:
- 既存の経験的再構築は,過去の百年規模のNH温度変動の振幅を大幅に過小評価している可能性があります.
- 過去のNH温度の変動は,現在の再構築によって示されるよりも少なくとも2倍大きい可能性があります.
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