2003年のヨーロッパにおける熱波に対する人間の貢献
Peter A Stott1, D A Stone, M R Allen
1Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK. peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk
Nature
|December 4, 2004
まとめ
2003年のヨーロッパで多くの死者を出した熱波は,人間が引き起こした気候変動による可能性が少なくとも2倍になった. この研究では,温室効果ガスの排出による夏の極度の高温のリスクの増加を定量化しています.
科学分野:
- 気候学 気候学
- 環境科学 環境科学
- 公衆衛生は公衆衛生である.
背景:
- 2003年の欧州の夏は極めて暑かったため,フランス,ドイツ,イタリアでは暑さによる死亡率が大幅に増加した.
- 特定の気象現象を気候変動と決定的に結びつけるのは,極端な現象が自然に起こる可能性があるため,複雑です.
研究 の 目的:
- 2003年の欧州の熱波のリスクに対する,人間の活動,特に温室効果ガスの濃度の増加による貢献を推定する.
- ヨーロッパ大陸における極端な夏の気温の可能性に,人類による気候変動の影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 極端な天候現象に対する人間の活動の影響を評価するために,確率的枠組みを利用した.
- 夏の平均気温に基づく気温の値を定義し,2003年に超えられたが,1851年以来のどの前年にも超えられなかった.
主要な成果:
- 主に温室効果ガスの濃度の上昇による人間の影響は,定義された温度値を超える熱波のリスクを少なくとも2倍にしたと推定されています.
- この研究は,このリスクの増加の非常に高い確率 (信頼度>90%) を示しています.
結論:
- 人為的な気候変動は,2003年のヨーロッパ熱波のような極端な暑さイベントの確率を大幅に高めています.
- 人間の活動により,悪天候のリスク景観が明らかに変化し,公衆衛生と気候適応戦略に影響を及ぼしています.
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