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Updated: Jul 10, 2026

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地球温暖化と海面上昇は,どこまで続くのでしょうか?
Gerald A Meehl1, Warren M Washington, William D Collins
1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Post Office Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA. meehl@ncar.ucar.edu
まとめ
温室効果ガスのレベルが安定しているにもかかわらず,地球は将来の温暖化と海面上昇に大きく直面しています. 気候モデルでは,2100年までに半度の上昇と320%の熱膨張と海面上昇が約束されていることが示されています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大気科学 大気科学
背景:
- 温室効果ガスの濃度は上昇しており,地球温暖化につながっています.
- 過去の気候変動は,すでに世界的に観察されています.
- 将来の気候軌道は安定化シナリオに依存する.
研究 の 目的:
- 仮説的な温室効果ガス安定化シナリオの下で将来の気候変動を予測する.
- 約束された地球温暖化と海面上昇を定量化するために.
- 気候モデル予測が地域気候パターンに与える影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 2つのグローバル・カップリングされた気候モデルを利用した.
- 温室効果ガスの濃度が安定した気候条件をシミュレートした2000年からの状況.
- 熱膨張による地球気温と海面の予測変化を分析した.
主要な成果:
- 21世紀末までに約0.5°Cの地球温暖化を約束する.
- 熱膨張に起因する320%の追加の海面上昇.
- 予想される大西洋南極逆転循環の弱化は,ヨーロッパにおける純冷却を引き起こさない.
結論:
- 過去の排出は,地球を,今後の重大な気候変動に巻き込んでおり,即時の安定とは関係ありません.
- 海面上昇と地球温暖化の傾向は,21世紀の安定化を超えて続きます.
- 北大西洋循環の変化などの地域的な気候の影響は,慎重に検討する必要があります.
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