カリフォルニアの明日の地震のリアルタイム予測
Matthew C Gerstenberger1, Stefan Wiemer, Lucile M Jones
1US Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson Ave, Pasadena, California 91106, USA. mattg@usgs.gov
Nature
|May 20, 2005
まとめ
現在,地震学者はより高い精度で地震の余震を予測しています. 新しいモデルは,24時間以内にカリフォルニア全土で強い地震の可能性を予測し,公衆の安全を助長しています.
科学分野:
- 地震科学は,地震に関する科学である.
- 地震学 地震学とは
- 地質物理学 地質物理学とは地質物理学です.
背景:
- 地震の予測には,信頼性の高い決定論的先駆体がない.
- 現在の時間依存の地震の確率は,一般的なクラスタリングモデルに基づいています.
- 既存の予測には,場所の特異性がないし,個々の地震のシーケンスに合わせていない.
研究 の 目的:
- より正確で,局所化され,有用な地震予測モデルを開発する.
- 地震の確率を,強い地震という観点から再考する.
- 時間依存のクラスタリングモデルと時間依存の故障データを統合する.
主な方法:
- タイムインデペンデントの地震発生モデル (故障データ,歴史的な地震) と,高度なローカルタイムインデペンデントの地震クラスタリングモデルを組み合わせた.
- 新しい地震リスクモデリングアプローチを開発しました.
- 強い地震の可能性を予測するために,予報を改訂しました.
主要な成果:
- 次の24時間以内にカリフォルニアのどこでも強い地震が発生する可能性を示す時間依存の地図を生成しました.
- このモデルは,時間に依存する地震の危険性についての理解を深める.
- 公衆,緊急事態計画者,メディアのための改善された予測ユーティリティ.
結論:
- 開発されたモデルは,地震の危険性評価において,著しい進歩をもたらします.
- このアプローチは,地震予測の実用的な応用を強化します.
- 地震クラスタリングの理解が深まったことで,強い地震の予測能力が向上する.
関連する概念動画
01:07What is Weather?
19.0K
Overview
19.0K
00:59Uncertainty: Overview
1.3K
In analytical chemistry, we often perform repetitive measurements to detect and minimize inaccuracies caused by both determinate and indeterminate errors. Despite the cares we take, the presence of random errors means that repeated measurements almost never have exactly the same magnitude. The collective difference between these measurements - observed values - and the estimated or expected value is called uncertainty. Uncertainty is conventionally written after the estimated or expected value.
1.3K
01:03Precipitation Gravimetry
10.5K
Precipitation gravimetry is based on converting an analyte into a sparingly soluble precipitate, which is separated by filtration and weighed. An ideal precipitate should be pure, insoluble, of known composition, and easily filtered from the reaction mixture.
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
10.5K
01:17Precipitation and Co-precipitation
3.3K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
3.3K
01:18Fault Types
313
When analyzing a single line-to-ground fault from phase A to ground at a three-phase bus, it is important to consider the fault impedance. This impedance is zero for a bolted fault, equal to the arc impedance for an arcing fault, and represents the total fault impedance for a transmission-line insulator flashover. To derive sequence and phase currents, fault conditions are translated from the phase domain to the sequence domain.
For line-to-line faults occurring between phases B and C, the...
For line-to-line faults occurring between phases B and C, the...
313
01:29Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
277
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is essential for risk identification, action prioritization, and resource optimization in critical situations like flooding and earthquakes. By integrating spatial and demographic data, GIS provides a comprehensive framework for emergency response.GIS integrates data layers, like rainfall intensity, topography, elevation profiles, and river levels, to model high-risk flood zones. These layers assess areas susceptible to flooding based on their...
277