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人為的な温暖化が世界の海洋に浸透する
Tim P Barnett1, David W Pierce, Krishna M Achutarao
1Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 0224, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA. tbarnett@ucsd.edu
まとめ
40年にわたる海洋温暖化は,人間が引き起こした複雑な信号を示しています. この人為的な気候変動は,海洋温度のデータで明らかであり,自然要因によって説明することはできません.
科学分野:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 環境科学 環境科学
背景:
- 世界の海は,過去40年間にわたって,かなりの熱を吸収してきました.
- 海洋温暖化の要因を理解することは,気候変動の評価に不可欠です.
研究 の 目的:
- 観測された海洋温暖化信号の起源を調査するために.
- 温暖化が人為的要因または自然変動によるものであるかどうかを判断する.
主な方法:
- 過去40年間の海洋温度データを分析した.
- 2つの気候モデルからのシミュレーションと観測された温暖化パターンの比較.
- 天然の気候の変動と外部からの影響 (太陽,火山) に対する評価.
主要な成果:
- 重要な垂直構造を持つ複雑な温暖化シグナルが海洋で特定されています.
- 観測された温暖化は,自然的な内部気候の変動性や太陽/火山による強制力によって説明できない.
- 2つの人為的に強制された気候モデルは,観測された温暖化パターンを成功裏にシミュレートしました.
結論:
- 観測された海洋温暖化シグナルは,人為的な起源 (人類による) である.
- この結論は,潜在的な観察サンプリングの問題とモデル不確実性にもかかわらず,堅牢です.
- 観測された温暖化パターンは,表面強制と組み合わせたアドベクティブの変化によって引き起こされ,将来の気候変動予測を真剣に検討する必要がある.
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