熱帯大気圏における表面温度の動向と変動の増幅

B D Santer¹, T M L Wigley, C Mears

¹Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. santer1@llnl.gov

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|August 16, 2005

まとめ

熱帯熱帯圏の温度変動は地表よりも大きく,モデルと理論と一致しています. しかし,長期温暖化の増幅はモデルと観測によって異なるが,おそらくデータエラーによるものである.

科学分野:

大気科学大気科学
気候モデリング
観測気象学の観測

背景:

熱帯の気温の変動は,地球表面と比較して熱帯圏の月間変動が大きい.
この増幅現象は,様々なデータセットと気候モデルシミュレーションで観察され,大気物理学の基本原理と一致しています.

研究の目的:

気候モデルシミュレーションと月間および複数十年間のスケールの観測データとの間の熱帯気温増幅の一貫性を調査する.
潜在的な不一致を特定し,モデルの限界や観測データエラーを含む,それらの根本的な原因を探求する.

主な方法:

複数のソースからの観測温度データセットの分析.
観測された気温の動向と,気候モデルシミュレーションによって生成された気温の動向の比較.
異なる時間スケール (月間および複数十年) における増幅因子の評価.

主要な成果:

月間気温変動は,観測とモデルを通じて熱帯熱帯圏で一貫して増幅されています.
マルチデケダルの時間スケールでは,気候モデルは,地表温暖化の熱帯圏増幅を堅牢にシミュレートします.
観測データは矛盾する結果を示しており,一部は弱いか負の増幅を示しており,長期的な傾向表現に潜在的な問題があることを示唆しています.

結論:

短期変動の増幅はよく複製されているが,長期的な温暖化増幅の不一致は,観測データの正確性における潜在的な課題を強調している.
この研究は,観測データセットの残留エラーが,複数十年間の気候動向の正確な表現に影響を与える可能性があることを示唆しています.
異なる時間スケールにおける温度増幅の行動を完全に調和させるために,観測データと気候モデルのさらなる精錬が必要である.

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