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低海面上昇予測は,地球温暖化による山岳の氷河と氷冠からのものです
Sarah C B Raper1, Roger J Braithwaite
1Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany. s.raper@mmu.ac.uk
Nature
|January 20, 2006
まとめ
地球温暖化により海面が上昇する. 融解する山岳の氷河や氷冠は,海面上昇に先程予想より少ない貢献をしているが,2100年までに0.046~0.051m上昇すると見積もられている.
科学分野:
- 氷河学 氷河学とは
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景:
- 地球温暖化は,21世紀を通して平均海面が上昇すると予測されています.
- 以前の予測では,熱膨張と氷の融解による有意な貢献が推定されていた.
- 山岳の氷河と氷冠は,2100年までに海面上昇に0.106mの貢献をすると推定されました.
研究 の 目的:
- グリーンランドと南極を除いて,山岳の氷河と氷冠が海面上昇に与える影響を評価する.
- 氷河や氷冠からの融解の寄与を別々に評価する.
- 海面上昇モデルの氷の量縮小の処理を改善するために.
主な方法:
- 融解モデルと幾何学的な体積モデルの適用.
- 氷の量の低い推定値を使用した.
- 予測のために2つの気候モデルを使用した.
主要な成果:
- 山岳の氷河と氷冠は,2100年までに海面上昇に0.0460.051mの貢献をすると予測されています.
- この貢献は,前回の予測の約半分に相当する.
- 氷河は,急速な面積減少による氷の融解の制限源として特定されました.
結論:
- 融解する山岳の氷河と氷冠は,21世紀における海面上昇の構成要素は,以前に推定されたものよりも小さい.
- アイスキャップは,山の氷河よりもゆっくりと溶けます.
- 氷河の面積減少は,海面上昇への氷河の貢献に大きく影響する.
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