人工的な文化市場における不平等と予測不能性の実験的研究
Matthew J Salganik1, Peter Sheridan Dodds, Duncan J Watts
1Department of Sociology, 413 Fayerweather Hall, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA. mjs2105@columbia.edu
まとめ
社会的影響は,製品の成功に大きく影響し,ヒットを予測不可能にします. 品質は重要ですが,人気のダイナミクスは市場格差を生み出し,予測可能性を低下させます.
科学分野:
- 社会心理学 社会心理学とは
- 行動経済学は,行動経済学である.
- 音楽産業の研究 音楽産業の研究
背景:
- 人気文化製品 (曲,本,映画) は,極端な成功格差を示しています.
- 専門家は,どの製品が広く普及するかを予測するために苦労しています.
- この格差は,成功している製品と平均的な製品の質的な違いを示唆しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 予測可能な品質と予測できない市場の成功のパラドックスを実験的に調査する.
- 市場における製品成功の決定における社会的影響の役割を理解する.
- 製品の品質,社会的影響,市場結果との関係を定量化する.
主な方法:
- 14,341人の参加者を集めた人工的な音楽市場が作られました.
- 参加者は,これまで知られていなかった曲をダウンロードしました.
- ダウンロードは,以前の選択 (社会的影響の変動) を知らず知らずに条件下で発生しました.
主要な成果:
- 社会的影響力の増大は,不平等と曲の成功の予測不可能な両方を増幅しました.
- 製品の品質は成功の決定要因の1つに過ぎなかった.
- 最高品質の曲はめったに失敗せず,最低品質の曲はめったに成功しなかったが,中間結果は非常に変動的だった.
結論:
- 社会的影響は,市場での成功を形作る上で重要な役割を果たし,しばしば本質的な品質を凌駕します.
- 社会的影響によって引き起こされる市場動態は,予測できない結果と大きな不平等をもたらします.
- 社会的影響を理解することは,文化市場の現象を理解する上で鍵となるものです.
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