アフリカ全土の地表水供給の変化と予測される気候変動
Maarten de Wit1, Jacek Stankiewicz
1Africa Earth Observatory Network (AEON) and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa. maarten@cigces.uct.ac.za
まとめ
アフリカの長年の排水密度は降雨に敏感であり,より乾燥した地域では深刻な地表水の損失を経験しています. 気候変動による降雨の減少は,2100年までにアフリカの25%の水へのアクセスを脅かしている.
科学分野:
- 水文学と気候学
- アフリカの水資源
背景:
- アフリカ全土の長年の排水密度は,年間平均降雨量と非線形的な関係を示しています.
- 降水値に基づいて,3つの異なる水文的体制が特定されています.
研究 の 目的:
- アフリカの長年の排水密度に対する降雨変化の影響を分析する.
- 脆弱な地域を特定し,潜在的に地表水へのアクセスが減少する可能性を定量化します.
主な方法:
- 年間平均降雨量の関数として長年の排水密度の分析.
- 異なる降雨システムにおける排水密度に対する降雨量減少の影響をモデル化.
主要な成果:
- 降水量が10%減少すると,排水量は年間1000mmで17%,年間500mmで50%減少する.
- 中途半端で不安定な降雨状態の地域は,最も深刻な影響を受けています.
- 予想される降水の変化は,2100年までに長年の排水量が大幅に減少することを示している.
結論:
- 永続的な排水量の減少は,アフリカの25%の表面水へのアクセスに大きく影響を与えます.
- 脆弱な地域における将来の水不足に対処するために,緊急の適応戦略が必要である.
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