1997-98年のインド洋におけるカップリングされた海洋大気ダイナミクス
P J Webster1, A M Moore, J P Loschnigg
1Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Campus Box 311, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309-311, USA. pjw@oz.colorado.edu
Nature
|July 25, 2006
まとめ
インド洋の気候の変動は,エルニーニョ/南方振動のような外部の出来事だけでなく,海洋-大気の内部ダイナミクスによって引き起こされる可能性があります. この発見は,この地域の気候予測を改善する可能性がある.
科学分野:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大気科学 大気科学
- 気候のダイナミクス
背景:
- インド洋の気候の変動は,エルニーニョ/南方振動のような外的な強迫から独立しているように見えた特徴を示している.
- インド洋システムの形成における内部結合の海洋-大気ダイナミクスの正確な役割とメカニズムは未解決のままである.
研究 の 目的:
- インド洋の海面温度,海面の高さ,降水,風における1997-98年の季節的異常を分析する.
- これらの異常を,インド洋の40年間の気候変動データと比較するために.
- 地域における重大な気候異常を誘発する内部ダイナミクスの可能性を調査する.
主な方法:
- 1997-98年の海面温度,海面の高さ,降水量,風力データを詳細に分析した.
- 40年間をカバーするインド洋の歴史的な気候変動記録との比較分析.
主要な成果:
- インド洋における1997-98年の強い異常は,主要なエルニーニョ/南方振動のイベントと一致したにもかかわらず,主に内部ダイナミクスによって引き起こされたようです.
- 1997-98年のイベントを支配する海洋-大気相互作用の提案されたメカニズムは,インド洋の気候システムの特徴的な内部モードを示唆しています.
結論:
- 1997-98年のインド洋の気候異常は,外部の影響への直接的な反応とは異なる内部モードを表している可能性があります.
- この内部モードが強固であれば,太平洋におけるエルニーニョ現象の予測と同様に,インド洋の気候の予測性を向上させる可能性がある.
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