2003年のイラク侵攻後の死亡率:横断的なクラスターサンプル調査

Gilbert Burnham¹, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy

¹Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA. gburnham@jhsph.edu

Lancet (London, England)

|October 24, 2006

まとめ

イラク戦争は推定654,965人の余剰死者を引き起こし,暴力,主に銃撃が主な原因となっている. 侵攻後の死亡率は2倍以上に増加し,死者の増加が続いていることを示しています.

科学分野:

公衆衛生は公衆衛生である.
エピデミオロジーエピデミオロジー
紛争研究紛争研究

背景:

以前の推定では,2003年3月から2004年9月までの間にイラクで約10万人の過剰死亡が報告されていた.
紛争が続いているため,死亡率の推定値の更新が必要となっている.

研究の目的:

2003年のイラク侵攻後,イラクにおける過剰死亡率の最新推定を提供すること.
侵攻後の死亡原因と死亡傾向を分析する.

主な方法:

2006年5月から7月にかけて,全国の横断的なクラスターサンプル死亡率調査が行われました.
データは,ランダムに選択された47のクラスターの1849の世帯から収集され,12801人の個人を含む.

主要な成果:

侵攻後の死亡率は,年間1000人当たり13.3と推定され,侵攻前の1000人当たり5.5だった.
2006年7月までに推定654,965人の余剰イラク人死亡 (人口の2.5%) が戦争に起因していた.
このうち,601,027人の死は暴力によるもので,銃撃が最も一般的な原因である.

結論:

イラクでの死者数は,2003年の侵攻以来,増加し続けています.
2006年に連合軍による死者の割合は減少したが,絶対的な数は毎年増加した.
銃撃は依然として暴力による死亡の主な原因であり,自動車爆弾による死者の増加が観察されています.

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