まとめ
主要なOECD諸国では1972年から1983年の間に暖房用オイルの使用量が大幅に減少し,家庭あたりの消費量が減少し,石油で暖房する住宅が少なくなることで,実質的な,おそらく恒久的な保全節約が達成されました.
科学分野:
- エネルギー経済学 エネルギー経済学
- 環境政策 環境政策
- 資源管理は資源の管理である.
背景:
- 給湯油の消費量は,1970年代半ばまで,先進国で著しく増加した.
- 石油使用の変化の原動力を理解することは,エネルギー政策と保全活動において極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 給熱油の使用の変化の恒久的および可逆的成分を推定する.
- 主要なOECD諸国における石油消費量の増加と,その後の減少に寄与する要因を分析する.
主な方法:
- 暖房用油消費データのエコノメトリック分析.
- 石油使用の変化の分解は,暖房された家庭の数と家庭あたりの消費量に関連する構成要素に変化します.
主要な成果:
- 1972年から1983年の間に7つのOECD諸国の住宅用石油使用量が40%減少し,1日120万バレルの石油を節約しました.
- 節約の3分の1は,石油で暖房する家庭の数が減ったことによるもので,3分の2は,家庭あたりの使用量が減ったことによるものです.
- 実際の保全コストは,家屋の大きさや中央給湯の普及率の増加により過小評価されています.
結論:
- 石油の総節約量の少なくとも46%は,永続的なものです.
- 逆戻り可能な貯蓄は,将来の石油価格の変動によって影響を受けることがあります.
- ほとんどの保全費の節約は維持され,時間とともに潜在的に増加すると予想されます.
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