まとめ
経験的モデルによると,太陽の全照射量は1945年以降増加し,1980年頃にピークに達した. この太陽光照射量の上昇は,モデルの予測にもかかわらず,地球温暖化にわずかな影響を与える可能性が高い.
科学分野:
- ソーラー物理学 ソーラー物理学
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 経験的モデリング
背景:
- 合計太陽照射量 (TSI) の変動は,太陽の磁気活動によって引き起こされます.
- 長期にわたるSTIの変更を理解することは,気候研究にとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 1874年から1988年までのTISのバリエーションの実証モデルを開発する.
- 太陽磁気活動の TSIへの影響を評価する.
- TSIの変更が地球温暖化に与える影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- フォトスフィアの磁気活動データ (1874年−1988年) に基づく実証モデルを開発した.
- 衛星放射計の観測 (1980年−1988年) と比較してモデルを検証した.
- エネルギーバランスの気候モデルに組み込まれたモデル出力.
主要な成果:
- 経験的モデルは,観測されたSTIの変動を正確に表しています.
- TSIは,およそ1945年以来,着実に上昇しています.
- 1980年頃に重要なTSIピークが発生し,太陽光サイクル22に別のピークが予想されます.
結論:
- 1945年以降のモデル化されたTSIの上昇は,地球温暖化の大きな要因である可能性は低い.
- 現在の気候モデルは,この太陽の傾向に大幅な温暖化を起因するとすれば,太陽光照射量の変化に対する気候の感受性を過小評価する可能性があります.
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