関連する実験動画
まとめ
水道プロジェクトの分析では,ダム崩壊や地震などの災害リスクはしばしば無視されます. 潜在的な損害は,特にリスクの高い都市プロジェクトでは,プロジェクトの利益と競合する可能性があるため,これらの残留リスクを含めることは極めて重要です.
科学分野:
- 環境工学 環境工学
- リスク評価 リスク評価
- 水資源の管理について
背景:
- 水道プロジェクトの利益とコストの分析は,通常,低確率で,大きな結果をもたらす災害リスクを排除します.
- 歴史的なデータは,ダム故障が稀な出来事ではないことを示しています.
- 貯水池によって引き起こされる地震の確率は,水の深さとともに上昇します.
研究 の 目的:
- 水道プロジェクトの利益コスト分析に残留リスクを組み込むことの重要性を強調する.
- 災害リスクはプロジェクト特有のものであり,個々の見積もりを要求することを強調する.
- 未評価の災害リスクの潜在的な財政的影響を実証する.
主な方法:
- 堤防の故障,貯水池による地震,そして地滑りに関する歴史的出来事分析.
- 災害の可能性に影響を与えるリスク要因の質的評価.
- 潜在的な損害コストとプロジェクトの利益の比較分析.
主要な成果:
- ダムの故障や貯水池による地震は,水道プロジェクトにおける重要な,多くの場合量化されていないリスクを代表しています.
- 貯水池による地震の確率は,貯水池の深さと直接関係しています.
- リスクの高いプロジェクト,特に都市部での予想される損害は,かなりのものになり,プロジェクトの利益を相殺する可能性があります.
結論:
- 利益とコストの分析は,正確な水道プロジェクトの評価のために,潜在的な災害からの残留リスクを統合する必要があります.
- プロジェクト特有のリスク評価は,潜在的な危険が変動する性質があるため,不可欠です.
- これらのリスクを考慮しないことは,実際のプロジェクトのコストを過小評価し,純利益を過大評価することにつながります.
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