まとめ
南極の海氷の広がりは,衛星データから9年以上にわたって決定的な長期的な減少を示していません. 地域的な変動や周期的なパターンは,潜在的な気候変動のシグナルを遮る.
科学分野:
- * 地球科学 地球科学
- * 気候学 * 気候学
- * 海洋学について
背景:
- * 1973年から1981年にかけての衛星観測を用いた南極海氷の範囲の分析.
- *地域間の年次変動と潜在的な長期的な傾向に関する調査.
研究 の 目的:
- * 南極海氷の範囲の決定的な長期的な減少が検出可能かどうかを判断する.
- * 観測された海氷の動向に対する周期的な変動の影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- * 9年間の全年衛星観測 (1973年−1981年) を利用した.
- * トレンド分析のための限られた事前のデータを取り入れた.
- * 海氷の面積の季節的および地域的変動を調べた.
主要な成果:
- * 9年間の間,南極の海氷の範囲の決定的な長期的な減少は検出されなかった.
- * 地域的な変動が顕著で,一部地域は減少,一部地域は増加している.
- * 1970年代半ばの氷の範囲の減少は持続せず,特にウェッデル海では回復が認められた.
- * 冬の最大値と夏の最小値の間の3〜5年の振動を含む周期的な変動が特定されました.
- * 前の海氷の増加 (1966年−1972年) は,周期的な要素が長期的な傾向を覆うことを示唆している.
結論:
- *短期的な衛星データ (1973年−1981年) は,南極海氷の長期的減少を明らかにするのに不十分である.
- *観測された海氷の変動は,主に地域的および周期的なもので,潜在的な気候変動の影響を隠しています.
- *自然変動から長期的な傾向を識別するために,より長いデータセットを使ったさらなる研究が必要である.
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