北米東部における将来の植生変化の潜在的規模:過去との比較
まとめ
トレースガスの増加による地球温暖化は,植物の大きな変化を引き起こす可能性があります. 東北米は500年以内に前例のない生態系変化を経験し,自然と森林のシステムに影響を与える可能性があります.
科学分野:
- 古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは
- エコロジー エコロジー エコロジー
- 気候科学 気候科学
背景:
- 大気中の微量ガス濃度の上昇は,世界の平均気温を1.5~4.5°C上昇させると予測されています.
- 過去の植生の変化は,将来の潜在的な変化を理解するためのベースラインを提供します.
研究 の 目的:
- 工業化以前の大気中のCO2濃度が2倍になったことへの反応として,自然植生の均衡分布を予測する.
- 予測される植生の変化を,過去の気候による変化と比較するために.
主な方法:
- 気候-花粉反応表面を利用した.
- 二重化CO2シナリオのための3つの気候モデルシミュレーションを適用した.
- 植物の分布の変化を200年から500年にわたって分析した.
主要な成果:
- 北米東部で予測される植生の変化は,過去7,000〜10,000年の変化を上回る可能性があります.
- 変化の大きさは,最も急速な脱氷期 (1,0003,000年) と比較できます.
- 植物の範囲と豊富さの最大値は,200〜500年以内に500〜1000kmにシフトする可能性があります.
結論:
- 予測された気候シナリオでは,前例のない植生の変化が非常に可能性が高い.
- 森林栽培と自然生態系に重大な影響が期待されています.
- 将来の植生シフトの正確なタイミングとパターンは,予測が難しいままです.
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