大西洋のハリケーン活動の最近の増加に,海面温暖化の大きな貢献
1Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, Department of Space and Climate Physics, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT, UK. mas@mssl.ucl.ac.uk
Nature
|February 1, 2008
まとめ
大西洋海の表面温度上昇は,ハリケーン活動の増加と関連しています. 海面温度の0.5°C上昇は,ハリケーン頻度と強度の40%増加と相関しています.
科学分野:
- 気候学 気候学
- 気象学 気象学 気象学
- 海洋学 海洋学とは
背景:
- 1995年以来,大西洋のハリケーン活動は著しく増加しています.
- この上昇における海面温度上昇 (SST) の正確な役割は,完全に理解されていません.
研究 の 目的:
- 大西洋海の表面温度がハリケーン活動に与える影響を定量化するために.
- 熱帯北大西洋,カリブ海,メキシコ湾におけるSSTとハリケーン頻度の関係を評価する.
主な方法:
- 局所的なSSTと大気中の風力場を使用して統計モデルを開発しました.
- 1965年から2005年のハリケーンデータを分析した.
- 風力場の影響を取り除き,SSTの衝撃を隔離した.
主要な成果:
- 統計モデルは,ハリケーン発生頻度と活動変動の有意な部分を複製した.
- 8~9月のSSTの0.5°C上昇は,約40%のハリケーン活動の増加と関連していました.
- 地元の海面温暖化は,1996年から2005年にかけてのハリケーン活動の増加の約40%を占めた.
結論:
- 海面の気温は,大西洋のハリケーン活動の増加の主な要因である.
- 観測された関係は,将来のハリケーン活動に関する気候モデルの予測を評価するためのベンチマークを提供します.
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