アメリカ合衆国西部の水文学における人間による変化

Tim P Barnett¹, David W Pierce, Hugo G Hidalgo

¹Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. tbarnett-ul@ucsd.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|February 2, 2008

まとめ

人間の活動により,米国西部の水循環が大きく変化し,川の流れ,気温,雪積もりが影響を受けた. 人間の影響によって引き起こされるこれらの気候変動の傾向は,この地域の将来的な水供給危機を警告しています.

科学分野:

気候科学気候科学
水文学水文学とは
環境科学環境科学

背景:

アメリカ合衆国西部では,20世紀後半に水文循環が大きく変化しました.
この乾燥した地域は,人口が大きく増え続けているので,水供給の変動に対して脆弱である.

研究の目的:

地域的,多変数的な気候変動の検出と帰属に関する研究を実施する.
米国西部で観測された水文学的傾向に対する人間の影響を定量化するために.
この乾燥した地域の水資源に対する気候変動の影響を評価する.

主な方法:

高解像度の水文モデルを使用した.
グローバル気候モデルのデータでモデルを強制した.
1950年から1999年の川の流れ,冬の気温,積雪の傾向を分析した.
結果の信頼性を確保するために,感受性分析を行いました.

主要な成果:

川の流れ,冬の気温,雪の積みの気候関連の傾向の最大60%は,人間の活動に起因する.
1950年から1999年の間の観測された変化は,人間による重大な影響を示しています.
結果は,異なる研究形態と方法論において堅実であることが判明しました.

結論:

人為的な気候変動は,米国西部における水文学的変化の主要な要因である.
これらの発見は,以前の研究と一致しており,水供給の危機が迫っていることを示しています.
水資源管理と気候変動の緩和に緊急に注意を払う必要がある.

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