2030年の食料安全保障のために,気候変動への適応の必要性を優先する
David B Lobell1, Marshall B Burke, Claudia Tebaldi
1Food Security and Environment Program, Woods Institute for the Environment and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. dlobell@stanford.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 2, 2008
まとめ
気候変動への適応投資では,特定の作物や地域が無視されることがあります. 南アジアと南アフリカは,主食作物に対する重大なリスクに直面しており,食糧安全保障を確保するために,標的を絞った適応戦略を必要としています.
科学分野:
- 農業科学 農業科学とは
- 気候変動への適応 気候変動への適応
- 食糧安全保障分析 食糧安全保障分析
背景:
- 気候変動への適応への投資は,しばしば地域的および作物特有の格差を生み出します.
- これらの格差を理解することは,効果的な世界的な食糧安全保障戦略にとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 気候変動による食糧不確実性のある12の地域における作物適応の優先事項を特定する.
- 先進的なモデリング技術を使用して,主要作物の気候リスクを分析する.
主な方法:
- 2030年までの20の一般循環モデルからの統計的作物モデルと気候予測を用いた.
- 脆弱な作物に焦点を当てて,12の食糧不安地域における気候リスクを評価しました.
主要な成果:
- 南アジアと南アフリカは,適応のない複数の重要な作物にとって高リスク地域として特定されています.
- 気候変動への影響予測には,さまざまな作物において大きな不確実性が存在し,適応計画に影響を与えています.
結論:
- 南アジアと南アフリカでは,食糧安全保障への負の影響を軽減するために,緊急で標的を絞った適応措置が必要である.
- 投資戦略は,作物特有の不確実性と制度的リスク耐性を考慮して,適応努力を効果的に優先させる必要があります.
関連する概念動画
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