大気温暖化と極端な降雨量の増幅
Richard P Allan1, Brian J Soden
1Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, Berkshire RG6 6AL, UK. r.p.allan@reading.ac.uk
まとめ
極端な降雨現象は,気温上昇に伴い強くなっていきますが,現在の気候モデルは,この影響を過小評価している可能性があります. 衛星データは,観測された変化がモデル予測を上回ることを明らかにし,将来の予測があまりにも保守的かもしれないことを示唆しています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 大気科学 大気科学
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
背景:
- 気候モデルでは,地球温暖化によって極端な降水量が増加すると予測しています.
- これらの予測の直接的な評価は,観測データによって制限されています.
研究 の 目的:
- 熱帯の降雨が自然気温と湿度の変動に与える反応を調査する.
- 観測された極端な降水傾向を気候モデルシミュレーションと比較する.
主な方法:
- 熱帯雨量の衛星観測を利用した.
- 比較のために気候モデルのシミュレーションを使用した.
- 極端な降雨量,地表温度,大気の湿度との関係を分析した.
主要な成果:
- 激しい降雨と気温変動との明確な関連が観察されました.
- 豪雨の発生は,暖かい時期には増加し,涼しい時期には減少した.
- 観測された極端な降雨の増幅は,気候モデルの予測を超えた.
結論:
- 天然の気候の変動は,将来の極端な降水に関する洞察を提供します.
- 現在の気候モデルは,極端な降雨量に対する地球温暖化の影響を過小評価している可能性があります.
- 将来の降水変化を正確に予測するために,気候モデルのさらなる精錬が必要である.
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