最も強い熱帯サイクロンの強度が増加する

James B Elsner¹, James P Kossin, Thomas H Jagger

¹Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA. jelsner@fsu.edu

Nature

|September 5, 2008

まとめ

熱帯サイクロンは強くなっており,世界中でより強い嵐が観測されています. この傾向は,海洋温度の上昇と関連しており,サイクロンの発生により多くのエネルギーを供給しています.

科学分野:

大気科学大気科学
気候科学気候科学
海洋学海洋学とは

背景:

大西洋の熱帯サイクロンは,海洋温度の上昇に関連して,強度が増加しています.
世界的な熱帯サイクロンの強度傾向は,データの制限により,より明確ではなく,平均強度に焦点を当てています.

研究の目的:

熱帯サイクロンの強度に関するトレンドを分析するために,風速の上方クォンチルを使用します.
同質的な衛星データを使用し,極端な出来事を調査することによって,以前の研究の限界を克服する.

主な方法:

サイクロン毎の最大風速の上方クォンチル (70パーセント以上) の傾向を調べた.
衛星記録からの均質なデータを活用して,生涯最大風速を推定しました.
様々な海域の傾向を分析し,最も強いサイクロン (99パーセント) に焦点を当てました.

主要な成果:

重要な上昇傾向は,70th percentile以上の風速の定数値で見つかりました.
最も強いサイクロンは,0.3 +/- 0.09 m/s/yr.まで上昇傾向を示した.
最も強いサイクロンの風速の上昇傾向は,それぞれの盆地で観察され,北大西洋が最も大きな増加を示しています.

結論:

海面温度の上昇は,熱帯サイクロンの増強のために利用可能なエネルギーの増加と質的に一致しています.
この研究は,世界的に最も強い熱帯サイクロンの強度の増加傾向を示す証拠を提供します.
発見は,気候変動が極端な天候現象に与える影響を強調しています.

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