喫煙と固体燃料の使用が中国でCOPD,肺がん,結核に及ぼす影響:時間に基づく複数のリスク因子,モデリング研究

Hsien-Ho Lin¹, Megan Murray, Ted Cohen

¹Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

Lancet (London, England)

|October 7, 2008

まとめ

中国で喫煙と固体燃料の使用を減らすことは,慢性閉塞性肺疾患 (COPD) と肺がんによる死亡率を大幅に減らすことができます. これらの介入は,結核の発生率を制御するうえで重要な役割を果たします.

科学分野:

公衆衛生は公衆衛生である.
エピデミオロジーエピデミオロジー
環境衛生環境衛生環境衛生

背景:

慢性阻害性肺疾患 (COPD),肺がん,結核は,中国における主要な死因である.
喫煙と家庭での固体燃料の使用の高頻度は,これらの病気の負担に寄与しています.

研究の目的:

中国におけるCOPD,肺がん,結核に対する危険因子傾向の影響を予測する.
喫煙と固体燃料の使用シナリオに基づいて将来の病気の死亡率と発生率をモデリングする.

主な方法:

喫煙や固体燃料の使用に関する過去の傾向と将来のシナリオを推定するために,代表的なデータを利用しました.
メタアナリシスや中国の研究からエチオロジック効果を組み込んだ.
リスク因子の蓄積と疾患発生率の依存性を考慮したモデル化された疾患アウトカム.

主要な成果:

現在の傾向が続くと,2033年までに6500万人のCOPD死亡と1800万人の肺がん死亡が予測されています.
喫煙と固体燃料の使用による死亡:COPDでは82%,肺がんでは75%.
結核の撲滅は,何百万もの死者を回避し,結核の発生率を大幅に減らすことができる.

結論:

COPDと肺がんの負担を大幅に削減することは,喫煙と固体燃料の使用を減らすことで達成できます.
これらの介入は,中国における結核の効果的な管理に不可欠である.

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