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プレイストセンの終わりの気候変動の一時的な性質
Thomas J Crowley1, William T Hyde
1School of Geosciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, UK. thomas.crowley@ed.ac.uk
Nature
|November 14, 2008
まとめ
地球の気候は,新しい氷河期状態に近づいているかもしれない. 氷・アルベドのフィードバックによって引き起こされるこの移行は,北半球氷河化と両半球にわたる対称的な氷の覆いにつながる可能性があります.
科学分野:
- 古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは
- 気候変動のダイナミクス
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
背景:
- 初期のプレイストセンの気候は,地球の傾斜 (41kyrサイクル) に合わせて変化した.
- 約900 キル前,気候の変動性は ~100 キルサイクルにシフトし,軌道特異性に結びつきました.
- この移行は,しばしば外的な強制への非線形反応に起因する.
研究 の 目的:
- 過去100万年にわたって気候変動の変動が増加していることは,気候変動のバイフォーケーションポイントに近づいていることを示唆している.
- 北半球の永久氷河化という安定した状態への将来の移行の可能性を調査する.
- 急激な気候変動における氷アルベドフィードバックの役割を分析する.
主な方法:
- 結合されたエネルギーバランス/氷床モデルを使用した.
- 気候の進化を数百万年にわたってシミュレートした.
- 過去400Kyrの世界の氷の量データと比較して検証されたモデル.
主要な成果:
- このモデルは,気候変動の二分化が近づいているという仮説を支持している.
- 将来の移行は,ユーラシアの氷床の大幅な拡大を伴う可能性が高い.
- 雪と氷の縁のアルベドの不連続性は,急激な変化の主要な原動力として特定されています.
- ベストフィットモデルは,過去400年における地球規模の氷の量における ~60%の変動を説明している.
結論:
- 過去100万年は,地球の気候の進化における一時的な間隔を表しています.
- 近い地質学的な将来,対称的な氷河状態 (北半球と南半球の氷の覆いと比較できる) に急速な移行が予測されています.
- この状態は,氷河以外の気候から氷河の気候への5千万年の進化の頂点となるでしょう.
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