隣人からのアドバイスの驚くべき力

Daniel T Gilbert¹, Matthew A Killingsworth, Rebecca N Eyre

¹Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA. gilbert@wjh.harvard.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|March 21, 2009

まとめ

人々は,イベントの詳細ではなく,ソーシャルネットワークの反応を使用して,将来のイベントに対する感情的な反応をよりよく予測します. この社会的予測の正確さは,個人や観察者によって過小評価されています.

科学分野:

社会心理学社会心理学とは
認知心理学とは,認知心理学である.
行動経済学は,行動経済学である.

背景:

将来の感情状態の正確な予測 (感情的予測) は,意思決定に不可欠です.
個人は,予測のためにイベント特有の情報に依存し,社会的影響を潜在的に見過ごします.

研究の目的:

イベント特有の情報と比較して,ソーシャルネットワークの情報が感情的予測の精度を高めるかどうかを調査する.
社会的な予測とイベントベースの予測の相対的な正確性に関する世俗的な信念を検証する.

主な方法:

2つの実験は,大学生参加者と実施されました.
参加者は,スピードデートとピア評価に対する感情的反応を予測した.
予測の精度は,ソーシャルネットワークの反応データとイベント特有のデータを使用した条件を比較した.

主要な成果:

参加者は,イベント情報よりもソーシャルネットワーク情報を用いて,感情的な反応をより正確に予測しました.
参加者と独立した審査員は,イベント情報がより正確な予測をもたらすと誤って信じていました.
この不一致は,予測の精度を判断する際のメタコグニティブエラーを強調しています.

結論:

ソーシャルネットワークの反応は,イベントの詳細よりも感情的な予測のためのより正確な基礎を提供します.
感情的な反応を予測する上で,社会的情報の予測力を過小評価する傾向があります.
この社会的予測効果を理解することは,意思決定と社会的影響の研究に意味を持っています.

さらに関連する動画

08:59

The Other End of the Leash: An Experimental Test to Analyze How Owners Interact with Their Pet Dogs

Published on: October 13, 2017

23:53

Ole Isacson: Development of New Therapies for Parkinson's Disease

Published on: April 29, 2007

関連する概念動画

02:09

Bystander Effect

The discussion of bullying highlights the problem of witnesses not intervening to help a victim. This is a common occurrence, as the following well-publicized event demonstrates. In 1964, in Queens, New York, a 19-year-old woman named Kitty Genovese was attacked by a person with a knife near the back entrance to her apartment building and again in the hallway inside her apartment building. When the attack occurred, she screamed for help numerous times and eventually died from her stab wounds.

01:52

Persuasion Strategies

Researchers have tested many persuasion strategies, including the foot-in-the door and the door-in-the-face techniques, in a variety of contexts. Ultimately, the principles are effective in selling products and changing people’s attitude, ideas, and behaviors (Cialdini & Goldstein, 2004).

00:52

Social Proof

Social proof is a form of persuasion based on comparison and conformity. People compare their behavior and actions to what others are doing and will change to conform to do what their peers do.

01:20

Conformity

Conformity is the change in a person’s behavior to go along with the group, even if that person does not agree with the group.

01:14

Fundamental Attribution Error

According to some social psychologists, people tend to overemphasize internal factors as explanations—or attributions—for the behavior of other people. They tend to assume that the behavior of another person is a trait of that person, and to underestimate the power of the situation on the behavior of others. They tend to fail to recognize when the behavior of another is due to situational variables, and thus to the person’s state. This erroneous assumption is called the fundamental attribution...

01:12

Hindsight Biases

Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?

関連する実験動画