累積的な炭素排出によって引き起こされる温暖化は,十億分の1トンの量に近づいている
Myles R Allen1, David J Frame, Chris Huntingford
1Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK. myles.allen@physics.ox.ac.uk
Nature
|May 2, 2009
まとめ
累積的な二酸化炭素排出量を制限することは,排出量または濃度に焦点を当てることよりも,より堅実な気候変動緩和戦略を提供します. 合計で1兆トンの炭素排出は,2°Cのピーク温暖化につながる可能性が高い.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
- 気候モデリング
背景:
- 世界的な気候変動の緩和は,気温予測に依存しているが,均衡温度と炭素サイクル反応の不確実性は,目標設定を複雑にする.
- 正確な予測は,危険な地球温暖化レベルを回避し,気候政策に情報を提供するために極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 様々な二酸化炭素排出経路に対する温度反応をシミュレートする.
- 科学的な不確実性下での気候政策目標の堅実性を評価する.
- 累積的な二酸化炭素排出量とピーク温暖化との関係を決定する.
主な方法:
- シンプルな気候・炭素・サイクルモデルを用いたエンサンブル・シミュレーションを行います.
- 複雑なモデルからの観察データと予測によって制約されるモデル.
- 幅広い二酸化炭素排出経路における温度反応の分析.
主要な成果:
- 累積的な二酸化炭素排出によるピーク温暖化は,安定化シナリオによる温暖化よりも制限されている.
- 累積的な排出量とピーク温暖化との関係は,排出経路のタイミングやピーク率に無関係です.
- 1兆トンの炭素排出量 (3.67兆トンのCO2) は,2°Cのピーク温暖化 (1.3-3.9°C 5-95%CI) を引き起こす可能性が高い.
結論:
- 累積的な二酸化炭素排出量の制限に基づく政策目標は,不確実性に対してより堅牢である.
- 累積的な排出目標は,気候変動緩和のための排出量または濃度目標よりも信頼性が高い.
- 効果的な気候政策を策定するために,炭素予算を理解することは不可欠です.
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