地球温暖化と累積的な炭素排出量との比例性について
H Damon Matthews1, Nathan P Gillett, Peter A Stott
1Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve Blvd W., Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, Canada. dmatthew@alcor.concordia.ca
Nature
|June 12, 2009
まとめ
炭素-気候反応 (CCR) は,CO2レベルとは関係なく,地球温暖化と炭素排出を結びつけています. このメトリックは,気候変動緩和政策のための累積的な排出による温暖化を推定するのに役立ちます.
科学分野:
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 大気化学 大気化学
背景:
- 従来の気候感受性指標 (ECS,TCR) は,炭素循環フィードバックを無視しているため,CO2排出に対する地球システムの反応を完全に捉えることはできません.
- 以前の気候-炭素モデリング実験では,CO2排出量,濃度,および温度反応の間の重要な関係が示されました.
- これらの関係は,気候と炭素サイクルプロセスを統合した簡素化されたメトリックの可能性を示唆しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 気候-炭素モデリング実験からの発見を一般化する.
- 累積炭素排出量単位あたりの温度変化の指標として,炭素-気候反応 (CCR) を導入し,定義する.
- CCRの大気中のCO2濃度およびその変化速度からの独立性を評価し,気候政策の適用のための観測上の制約を推定する.
主な方法:
- 確立された気候-炭素モデリングの結果の汎用化.
- 炭素-気候反応 (CCR) の定義は,温度変化と累積的な炭素排出量の比率である.
- 観測的制約を用いたCCRの推定と,気候-炭素モデルシミュレーションとの比較.
主要な成果:
- 炭素-気候反応 (CCR) は大気中のCO2濃度と,その変化の速度は,十年から百年という時間スケールでほぼ独立しています.
- 観測上の制約により,CCRは,排出された1兆トン炭素 (Tt C) に対して1.0-2.1 °C (5th-95th percentiles) と見積もられている.
- モデルから得られたCCR値は,観測による推定値と一致しているが,土地利用とエアロゾール強制における不確実性により,より高い値が認められる.
結論:
- CCRは,気候と炭素サイクルフィードバックを集約することによって,気候-炭素モデルを比較するための堅牢なメトリックを提供します.
- CCRは,二酸化炭素による世界の平均気温の変化を,累積的な炭素排出量から直接推論することを簡素化します.
- このメトリックは,気候変動の緩和と政策にとって価値があり,不確実性を単一の直接利用可能な量に統合します.
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