過去1500年の大西洋のハリケーンと気候
Michael E Mann1, Jonathan D Woodruff, Jeffrey P Donnelly
1Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA. mann@psu.edu
Nature
|August 14, 2009
まとめ
大西洋のハリケーン活動は最近高くなっていますが,1500年の研究によると,中世の時代には同様のまたはより高い嵐のレベルがありました. これは,最近の増加が前例のないものではないことを示唆しています.
科学分野:
- 古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは
- トロピカル気象学 トロピカル気象学
- 気候変動科学 気候変動科学
背景:
- 最近の大西洋の熱帯サイクロンの活動は異常なレベルに達し,歴史的なデータの信頼性についての議論を引き起こしました.
- 長期的な傾向を理解することは,現在の嵐活動の重要性を評価するために不可欠です.
研究 の 目的:
- 最近の大西洋で発生した熱帯サイクロンの活動を,1500年に及ぶ長期の歴史的文脈に置く.
- 過去のハリケーン活動の再構築のための2つの独立した方法を比較する.
主な方法:
- ハリケーンが上陸した地域的な堆積物証拠を利用した.
- 大西洋の熱帯性サイクロン活動に関する統計モデルをプロキシ気候再構築によって動かした.
主要な成果:
- 両方とも一貫して,中世 (紀元1000年頃) に大西洋の熱帯サイクロン活動がピークに達したことを示しています.
- 中世の嵐のレベルは,推定された不確実性の中で,最近の活動に匹敵し,またはそれを上回りました.
- 統計モデルは,中世のピークをラニーニャのような状況と熱帯大西洋のより暖かい気温と関連付けました.
結論:
- 大西洋のハリケーン活動の最近の増加は,1500年の時間スケールで見ると前例のないものではないかもしれません.
- 中世の気候条件は,ラニーニャのような状態と暖かい海によって特徴付けられ,高い熱帯サイクロン活動を助長しました.
- 長期の気候変動の変動は,大西洋のハリケーンパターンに大きな影響を与える.
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