危機的な移行の早期警告信号
Marten Scheffer1, Jordi Bascompte, William A Brock
1Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands. marten.scheffer@wur.nl
Nature
|September 4, 2009
まとめ
複雑なダイナミックシステムは,臨界点に達する前に早期警告信号を発する可能性があります. これらの一般的な信号は,生態系から気候まで,さまざまな分野における急激な変化を予測するのに役立ちます.
科学分野:
- 複雑なダイナミック・システム
- 分野間の科学研究である.
背景:
- 生態系,金融市場,気候を含む複雑なシステムは,臨界点として知られる急激な変化を経験することがあります.
- これらの重要な値の予測は,これらのシステムの固有の複雑性のために困難です.
研究 の 目的:
- 複雑な動的システムにおける臨界点に近づくための一般的な早期警告信号を特定し,調査する.
- さまざまな科学分野における重要な移行を予測するための枠組みを提供すること.
主な方法:
- 理論的枠組みと様々な科学分野からの経験的証拠のレビュー.
- ダイナミック・システムの体制変化に先立つ共通のパターンと指標の分析.
主要な成果:
- 証拠は,幅広い複雑なシステムに適用できる一般的な早期警告信号の存在を示唆しています.
- これらのシグナルは,臨界する臨界値の事前通知を提供する可能性があります.
結論:
- 早期警告信号は,複雑なダイナミックなシステムにおける臨界点を予測する有望なアプローチを提供します.
- さらなる研究は,気候科学や生態学などの分野における予測を改善するために,これらの信号を精製することができます.
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