態度と行動:世論と国際テロの発生
Alan B Krueger1, Jitka Malecková
1Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. akrueger@princeton.edu
まとめ
外国指導者の公的不承認は,国際テロリズムを予測する. 中東や北アフリカ諸国の市民が,他国の国民を嫌うとき.
科学分野:
- 政治科学は政治学を学んでいる.
- 国際関係 国際関係
- セキュリティ研究 セキュリティ研究
背景:
- 国際テロリズムの根本的な原因と予測要因は,まだ十分に理解されていない.
- 既存の研究は,国境を越えた紛争の潜在的な原動力としての世論の役割をしばしば無視している.
研究 の 目的:
- ある国の世論と,その国から出発する国際テロリズムの発生の間の因果関係を調査する.
- テロ攻撃に対する外国指導部に対する否定的な世論の感情の影響を具体的に検討する.
主な方法:
- 中東・北アフリカ諸国における9つの世界大国に対するリーダーシップの不承認によって測定された世論データの分析.
- 143のカントリーペアを分析するためにカウントモデルを使用し,関連する変数と原産国固定効果を制御します.
主要な成果:
- 統計的に有意な正の相関は,外国の指導者の世論的な不承認と,国際テロ事件の頻度との間で発見されました.
- 公衆の嫌悪感のレベルが高くなるということは,嫌悪感を持つ国の市民がテロリズムを犯す頻度が高くなるということです.
結論:
- 公衆の意見,特に外国指導者に対する否定的な感情は,国際テロリズムの重要な予測要因です.
- 調査結果は,公衆の感情に対処することは,対テロ戦略の重要な要素である可能性があることを示唆しています.
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